Policy Dynamics

Maor, Moshe, and Howlett, Michael. 2023. Measuring policy instrument interactions in policy mixes: Surveying the conceptual and methodological landscape. In Routledge Handbook of Policy Tools, ed. Michael Howlett. Abingdon: Oxon: Routledge, p. 453-465.Abstract

Resolving a complex policy problem often requires a mix of policy instruments and thus the identification of the most promising instrument combination. However, the relevant terminology of instrument interactions in a policy mix has not been standardized, hindering a straightforward identification of superior instrument combinations. To address this challenge, the chapter defines the terminology necessary for detecting three different possible policy instrument interactions—namely synergistic, counter-productive, and additive effects. It identifies two approaches to analyzing instrument mix effects: the “effect-based” and the “effort-based” methods. It then discusses the practical advantages and limitations of each approach and elaborates on key methodological issues that policy scholars and practitioners face at each step of developing a new policy mix. 

Maor, Moshe . 2023. From institutional tipping points to affective and direct tips: Mythical institutions, policy ineffectiveness, and nonlinear political dynamics in East Germany, 1989–1990. Policy Sciences 56: 449-467. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11077-022-09474-2.pdf. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Studies concerning nonlinear political dynamics, such as regime change, focus on macro-level structural factors and political agency. Tipping points are pitched mainly at these levels, and scholars therefore devote less attention to meso-level factors. To bridge this gap, this article develops a verbal model focusing on the collapse of mechanisms that sustain mythical state institutions as drivers of such dynamics. A mythical institution enjoys a reputation for power and influence among the public based on widespread and persistent stereotypical beliefs that embody a collectivity’s sense of origin and tradition, high performance and stability, and/or vision and mission. The argument advanced here is that nonlinear political dynamics may occur when the collapse of such mechanisms reflects on the unquestioned legitimacy that the mythical state institution enjoys, creating massive embarrassment for the regime because its mythical institution’s status requires government intervention to prevent believers from “fleeing” and/or revolting. This, in turn, undermines or debunks this institution’s myth, thereby generating high levels of anxiety, fear, anger, or other (mixes of) emotions. Which emotional process dominates depends on which reaction is stronger at the moment in question. When the level reaches an affective tipping point, citizens begin to update their evaluations and consider new information. This leads to behavioral convergence (e.g., mass protest, mass emigration, violence), which is in turn accelerated when the regime’s counter-response is publicly perceived as ineffective, thus highlighting the irreversibility of this process. This argument is illustrated herein by examining the 1989 collapse of East Germany’s emigration restrictions system. 
Maor, Moshe, . 2021. Blame avoidance, crisis exploitation, and COVID-19 governance response in Israel. Israel Studies Review 36(3): 84-105. https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/israel-studies-review/36/3/isr360303.xml?rskey=rbbVFA&result=3. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Surprisingly, although the Israeli government adopted unregulated, unorganized, inefficient, uncoordinated, and uninformed governance arrangements during the first wave of COVID-19, the public health outcome was successful, a paradox that this theoretically informed article seeks to explain. Drawing on insights from blame avoidance literature, it develops and applies an analytical framework that focuses on how allegations of policy underreaction in times of crisis pose a threat to elected executives’ reputations and how these politicians can derive opportunities for crisis exploitation from governance choices, especially at politically sensitive junctures. Based on a historical-institutional analysis combined with elite interviews, it finds that the implementation of one of the most aggressive policy alternatives on the policy menu at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis (i.e., a shutdown of society and the economy), and the subsequent consistent adoption of the aforementioned governance arrangements constituted a politically well-calibrated and effective short-term strategy for Prime Minister Netanyahu.

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