Policy Dynamics

2023
Maor, Moshe, and Howlett, Michael. 2023. Measuring policy instrument interactions in policy mixes: Surveying the conceptual and methodological landscape. In Routledge Handbook of Policy Tools, ed. Michael Howlett. Abingdon: Oxon: Routledge, p. 453-465.Abstract

Resolving a complex policy problem often requires a mix of policy instruments and thus the identification of the most promising instrument combination. However, the relevant terminology of instrument interactions in a policy mix has not been standardized, hindering a straightforward identification of superior instrument combinations. To address this challenge, the chapter defines the terminology necessary for detecting three different possible policy instrument interactions—namely synergistic, counter-productive, and additive effects. It identifies two approaches to analyzing instrument mix effects: the “effect-based” and the “effort-based” methods. It then discusses the practical advantages and limitations of each approach and elaborates on key methodological issues that policy scholars and practitioners face at each step of developing a new policy mix. 

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Maor, Moshe . 2023. From institutional tipping points to affective and direct tips: Mythical institutions, policy ineffectiveness, and nonlinear political dynamics in East Germany, 1989–1990. Policy Sciences 56: 449-467. https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11077-022-09474-2.pdf. Abstract
Studies concerning nonlinear political dynamics, such as regime change, focus on macro-level structural factors and political agency. Tipping points are pitched mainly at these levels, and scholars therefore devote less attention to meso-level factors. To bridge this gap, this article develops a verbal model focusing on the collapse of mechanisms that sustain mythical state institutions as drivers of such dynamics. A mythical institution enjoys a reputation for power and influence among the public based on widespread and persistent stereotypical beliefs that embody a collectivity’s sense of origin and tradition, high performance and stability, and/or vision and mission. The argument advanced here is that nonlinear political dynamics may occur when the collapse of such mechanisms reflects on the unquestioned legitimacy that the mythical state institution enjoys, creating massive embarrassment for the regime because its mythical institution’s status requires government intervention to prevent believers from “fleeing” and/or revolting. This, in turn, undermines or debunks this institution’s myth, thereby generating high levels of anxiety, fear, anger, or other (mixes of) emotions. Which emotional process dominates depends on which reaction is stronger at the moment in question. When the level reaches an affective tipping point, citizens begin to update their evaluations and consider new information. This leads to behavioral convergence (e.g., mass protest, mass emigration, violence), which is in turn accelerated when the regime’s counter-response is publicly perceived as ineffective, thus highlighting the irreversibility of this process. This argument is illustrated herein by examining the 1989 collapse of East Germany’s emigration restrictions system. 
2021
Maor, Moshe, . 2021. Blame avoidance, crisis exploitation, and COVID-19 governance response in Israel. Israel Studies Review 36(3): 84-105. https://www.berghahnjournals.com/view/journals/israel-studies-review/36/3/isr360303.xml?rskey=rbbVFA&result=3. Abstract
Surprisingly, although the Israeli government adopted unregulated, unorganized, inefficient, uncoordinated, and uninformed governance arrangements during the first wave of COVID-19, the public health outcome was successful, a paradox that this theoretically informed article seeks to explain. Drawing on insights from blame avoidance literature, it develops and applies an analytical framework that focuses on how allegations of policy underreaction in times of crisis pose a threat to elected executives’ reputations and how these politicians can derive opportunities for crisis exploitation from governance choices, especially at politically sensitive junctures. Based on a historical-institutional analysis combined with elite interviews, it finds that the implementation of one of the most aggressive policy alternatives on the policy menu at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis (i.e., a shutdown of society and the economy), and the subsequent consistent adoption of the aforementioned governance arrangements constituted a politically well-calibrated and effective short-term strategy for Prime Minister Netanyahu.
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Maor, Moshe, . 2021. Deliberate disproportionate policy response: Towards a conceptual turn. Journal of Public Policy 41(1): 185-208. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0143814X19000278.
Maor, Moshe, . 2021. Policy over- and under-reaction as policy styles. In The Routledge Handbook of Policy Styles, eds. Michael Howlett and Tosun, Jale . London: Routledge, p. 273-285.PDF icon over_under_policy_style_howjal.pdf
2020
Maor, Moshe, . 2020. Policy over- and underreaction: From unintentional error to deliberate policy response. In A Modern Guide to Pubic Policy, eds. Michael Howlett and Tosun, Jale . Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar Publishing, p. 93-111.PDF icon from_unintentional_to_deliberate_dis_policy.pdf
Maor, Moshe,, and Michael Howlett. 2020. Explaining variations in state COVID-19 responses: Psychological, institutional, and strategic factors in governance and public policy-making. Policy Design & Practice 3(3): 228-241. https://doi.org/10.1080/25741292.2020.1824379.
Maor, Moshe, . 2020. A disproportionate policy perspective on the politics of crisis management. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, Oxford University Press. https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1513.
Maor, Moshe, . 2020. Policy over- and under-design: An information quality perspective. Policy Sciences 53: 395–411. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11077-020-09388-x.
Maor, Moshe, . 2020. Policy overreaction styles during manufactured crises. Policy & Politics 48(4): 523-539. https://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/tpp/pap/2020/00000048/00000004/art00001.
Maor, Moshe, . 2020. A social network perspective on the interaction between policy bubbles. International Review of Public Policy 2(1): 24-44. https://journals.openedition.org/irpp/774.
Maor, Moshe,, Raanan Sulitzeanu-Kenan, and David Chinitz. 2020. When COVID-19, constitutional crisis, and political deadlock meet: The Israeli case from a disproportionate policy perspective. Policy and Society 39(3): 442-457. https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2020.1783792.
2019
Maor, Moshe, . 2019. Overreaction and bubbles in politics and policy. In Oxford Handbook on Behavioral Political Science, eds. Alex Mintz and Terris, Lesley . Oxford Handbooks Online, Oxford University Press. https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190634131.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780190634131-e-28.
Maor, Moshe, . 2019. Strategic policy overreaction as risky policy investment. International Review of Public Policy 1(1): 46-64. https://journals.openedition.org/irpp/277.
2017
Maor, Moshe, . 2017. Disproportionate policy response. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, Oxford University Press. https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-168. Abstract

Disproportionate policy response is understood to be a lack of ‘fit’ or balance between the costs of a public policy and the benefits derived from this policy, and between policy ends and means. The study of this phenomenon and its two anchor concepts, namely, policy over- and underreaction, has been inspired by the insight that inefficiencies in the allocation of attention in policymaking leads policymakers to react disproportionately to information. This theory of information processing appears to be broadly accepted and has generated a large body of research on agenda setting. However, little attention has been devoted to actual policy over- and underreaction and how it affects the public. The latest developments are conceptual in nature and include a conceptualization and dimensionalization of policy over- and underreaction, as well as an early-stage development of a preference-driven approach to disproportionate policy response. These issues are fundamental to developing understanding of the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of disproportionate policy response. They are also valuable to those who want to better understand the processes through which policy over- and underreaction occur and are of considerable interest to practitioners who want to understand how to manage disproportionate policy responses more effectively.

Although disproportionate policy response poses methodological challenges because it is time-bound, context-sensitive and has a problematic counterfactual (i.e., proportionate policy response), it deserves academic attention. This is because the insight of the punctuated equilibrium theory—that policy responses oscillate between periods of underreaction to the flow of information coming from the environment into the system and overreaction due to disproportionate information processing—implies that policy oscillation is the norm rather than the rarity. To probe research questions related to the topic at hand, disproportionate policy response can be measured as individuals’ perceptions of what they think about the proportionality of policy. Alternatively, scholars may employ vignette survey experiments, sophisticated cost-benefit analysis and a comparison of policy outcomes with (national or international) standards developed by experts. Scholars may also undertake experimental manipulation using risk unfolding over time, combined with varying types of warnings.

The study of disproportionate policy response is a gateway to some of the most significant aspects of public policy. Global and domestic threats coupled with relatively skeptical publics about politicians and political institutions and rising negativity and populism in democratic politics imply that policy overshooting is increasingly required for the public to perceive policy action as sufficient and politicians as competent, at least in the short term. Not only has disproportionate policy response been a focal point for political actors seeking decisive and swift policy change in times of real or manufactured crisis or no change at all, but such action has time and time again also made a dramatic impact upon the direction and the character of policy and politics. Classic examples are the U.S. response to 9/11 and the federal response to Hurricane Katrina. So far the literature on policy change has not responded to the emergence of the stream of research aimed at fully understanding the complex phenomenon of disproportionate policy response, but a robust research agenda awaits those answering this article’s call for action.

Tosun, Jale,, Andrew Jordan, and Moshe Maor. 2017. Governing climate change: The (dis)proportionality of policy responses. Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning 19(6): 596-598. https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2017.1354451.
Maor, Moshe, . 2017. The implications of the emerging disproportionate policy perspective for the new policy design studies. Policy Sciences 50: 383–398. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11077-016-9259-8.
Maor, Moshe, . 2017. Policy entrepreneurs in policy valuation processes: The case of the Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies. Environment and Planning C: Politics and Space 35(8): 1401-1417. https://doi.org/10.1177/2399654417700629.
Maor, Moshe, . 2017. Policy overreaction doctrine: From ideal-type to context-sensitive solution in times of crisis. In Handbook of Policy Formulation, eds. M. Howlett and Mukherjee, I. . Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, p. 539-553.PDF icon policy_overreaction_doctrine_scan.pdf

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